Hard to be patient with a team that gives up leads so easily

Not just San Jose State's football team, which gave up yet another opportunity to win last Saturday in Logan, losing to Utah State 34-33 and thus losing bowl eligibility (I'd rather there be a playoff system in college football a la the NCAA basketball tournament, but I'll save that for another blog).

In the meantime, SJSU basketball came off a very close 51-50 win in its home opener v UC Irvine. The win resulted from the referees deciding that a UC Irvine player didn't get a successful shot off his hands before the buzzer. A similar thing happened in SJSU's 75-74 WAC tournament win last season v Hawaii, as seen in this fan-created video (starting at the 1:25 mark)



Tonight, SJSU lost at the War Memorial Arena to San Francisco 83-81 in overtime. The Spartans rallied from a 20-8 deficit early in the 1st quarter to lead 37-35 at halftime. Then the Spartans had led as many as 8 for the majority of the 2nd half (similar to the previous game v UCI) before San Francisco rallied to force OT, tied 71 both. USF began OT with a 7-2 run. Finally, SJSU had the chance to tie or win with a three after USF's Cody Doolin missed both free throws. There were 7 seconds left. James Kinney (a transfer from the Mid-American Conference Ohio and then the jr. college Eastern Utah) tried a desperation half-court shot when he really could've gotten within reasonable range for a buzzer beater. No good. Although SJSU had a good defensive effort and Keith Shamburger once again showed his offensive talents--he even opened the 2nd half with two consecutive three-pointers--the team just found yet another way to give the game away in the last minute. A similar OT loss happened in Feb. 2011 v Nevada, except the loss was by 8.

San Jose State has yet to win on the road but has another opportunity Saturday night when the Spartans face cross-town rival Santa Clara. Unlike the past two games in which SJSU made less than 30% of field goals, tonight the Spartans made 48.5%. Because it's so early in the season, average statistics are not reliably predictable, as Santa Clara has a 39.1% FG average based on two lopsided games: 44.8% v the D-III UC Merced and 32.8% v the defending Big West champions UC Santa Barbara. SJSU's average, in contrast, so far is a measly 28%. The past two of SJSU's games were within close margins, while SJSU's opening game was a 79-52 loss to Cal Poly. On the individual player level, it appears that Santa Clara has the offensive advantage in its leading scorer. A comparison:

• Keith Shamburger (SJSU) averages: 35 mins, 12.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 30% field goals made, 73.3% free throws, 22.2% 3-pointers. Committed 7 turnovers. Grabbed 5 rebounds, all defensive.
  
• Kevin Foster (SCU): 21 mins, 14.5 points, 2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 33.3% field goals, 71.4% free throws, 28.6% 3-pointers. Committed 2 turnovers. Of 4 rebounds, 2 each in offense and defense.

But again, keep in mind that these statistics could be skewed in favor of SCU because the team played a D-III opponent for its first game. It's interesting to note that SJSU had better field goal and 3 point percentages in losing to USF than UCSB had winning over SCU:

• Field goals: SJSU 48.5% v USF, UCSB 47.5% v SCU
• 3 pointers: SJSU 35.7% v USF, UCBS 30.0% v SCU

San Jose State will have a truly competitive game against Santa Clara on Saturday night if the team improves on offense, most of all, and enforces the defense against the Broncos.

Very last minute WAC picks for Oct. 29

Personal reasons including midterms made me procrastinate all the way 'til 2 hours before SJSU/Louisiana Tech kickoff!

San Jose State (3-4, 2-1 WAC) at Louisiana Tech (3-4, 2-1 WAC): SJSU Spartans by 3. On Nov. 27, 2010, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs beat San Jose State 45-38 after a last-minute interception to prevent a San Jose State opportunity to tie the game. A better-than-ever Spartan team comes to Ruston, La. off a dramatic comeback victory against Hawaii in homecoming a few weeks ago. Back then, SJSU relied on mainly a passing game against La. Tech and was outrun 374-26. However, with Brandon Rutley gaining much crucial yardage every game for the Spartans, the Spartans can play a close game against the Bulldogs. However, comparing the running stats of SJSU and LT, it is important to note that La. Tech has on average outrun opponents and has a slight edge in averages:

• Average ypg: LT 138.3, SJSU 129.6
• Average yards per carry: SJSU 3.9, LT 3.3
• Rushing TDs: LT 14, SJSU 10

Thus, as coach Mike MacIntyre has acknowledged it's important to stop LT's running back Lennon Creer, this game might be the Battle of the Running Backs. The last time San Jose State won in Ruston was in 1993, and SJSU last won an away conference game in 2008. SJSU's defensive line should be accounted for especially with the critical defensive plays vs. Hawaii (which beat La. Tech 44-26 on Oct. 1) including forcing 5 Hawaii turnovers and blocking a point after for a 2-point safety return.

Hawaii (4-3, 2-1 WAC) at Idaho (1-6, 0-3 WAC): Hawaii by 20. Idaho has lost 5 in a row and has won only against the I-AA North Dakota. Unless Bryant Moniz throws 5 INTs again like he did against SJSU, Hawaii definitely has the offensive advantage (stats: Hawaii, Idaho). SJSU faces Idaho in San Jose on Nov. 5. Will be on ESPN3 from 5PM Eastern.

Nevada (4-3, 2-0 WAC) at New Mexico State (3-4, 1-2 WAC): Nevada by 9. NMSU's strength is in the passing game, as this is the one offensive area with NMSU has edged opponents including 14.7 yards per catch (Nevada has only 13.5). In Nevada, freshman QB Cody Fajardo is taking over as main QB while senior Tyler Lantrip is relegated to backup. Fajardo currently has a 72.7% completion rate but has thrown 4 INTs over 2 TDs, while NMSU's starter Matt Christian (in for the injured Andrew Manley) 8 TDs for 1 INT.

A tardy little SJSU post game analysis and WAC picks for the weekend

I went to last Saturday's SJSU/NMSU football game, and SJSU won 34-24. Once again RB Brandon Rutley was a fugitive from the defensive justice. In the Spartans' first possession, he scored a 66-yard rushing touchdown; the Aggies scored a field goal on their first possession after the Spartans forced a 4th & goal from the 1-yard line. Although SJSU ended the 2nd and 3rd quarters with ties, SJSU scored a touchdown and field goal in the 4th and didn't allow any Aggie scoring to seal the win. Watch the full game on WatchESPN here.

Spartan QB Matt Faulkner threw no interceptions that day, and SJSU lost only one fumble, compared with the 3 lost fumbles vs. Nevada and the last-minute end zone interception that sealed the win for Nevada. However, the one interception that Aggie QB Matt Christian threw in the 3rd the Spartans returned for a TD to go up 31-24 in the 4th. While both teams (box score) had very close receiving yardage (NMSU 238, SJSU 236), the Spartans had the edge in rushing, 230-185, after falling behind to Nevada 138-261. This will be one key for the upcoming away game at Colorado State: outrushing wins games. Most telling of all: the Aggies racked 8 penalties for a loss of 76 yards, while SJSU had only one 5-yard penalty on an ineligible downfield pass. Two of those penalties came after SJSU 3rd downs, and one of them was during an SJSU scoring drive.

Preview: SJSU at Colorado State
On Saturday, SJSU plays the Colorado State Rams in Fort Collins, Co. at 2PM Mountain Time (1PM Pacific too). Listen on the radio at KLIV 1590 (either on the air or streaming online) or if you have DirecTV watch on the MountainWest Sports Network "the mtn." I think the mtn is available in HD. So what's my pick for that game? Well, Colorado State's quarterback Pete Thomas will be quite a challenge for the Spartans, with a whopping 67.7% completion rate in 4 games! The last time the Spartans faced a quarterback with a 60%+ rate, they lost...56-3 to Stanford on the first season game, whose QB Andrew Luck had a 65.3% completion rate.

The Colorado State vs. Utah State game
However, keep in mind that the Rams' last game (in Logan, Utah) was against another WAC team, the Utah State Aggies, and Colorado State won by one only because Utah State's 2-point conversion after a TD failed. In that game, Pete Thomas completed 16 of 28 passes (57.1%), and Utah State's Chuckie Keeton completed 9 of 15 (60%). Utah State, who last year narrowly beat SJSU 38-34 in a roller coaster back and forth game, outrushed Colorado State 281-124 but lagged in receiving 86-108. In fact, although USU led CSU 21-13 with about 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter, CSU scored the tying touchdown and 2-point conversion after USU's Eric Moats fumbled a kick return, and while Utah State managed to score TD's on both its OT drives, Utah State's 2-point conversion in its final drive for the win was unsuccessful. (That game was also on ESPN3, watch in full here.) The Rams' only loss so far was 28-14 in an away game against in-state rivals Colorado Buffaloes (who joined the Pac-12 this year after being in the Big 12). Similar to the Utah State game, Colorado State won 14-10 against the still-winless New Mexico Lobos over a 4th-quarter go-ahead TD.

New Mexico Bowl champs
Here's another interesting historical tidbit: in the 2008 New Mexico Bowl, Colorado State rallied in the 4th quarter to beat Fresno State 40-35. SJSU won the 2006 New Mexico Bowl over New Mexico, 20-12.

The quarterbacks
And regarding quarterbacks: so far Matt Faulkner's only thrown interception was the end zone one vs. Nevada that prevented SJSU from taking a lead with one minute left. Meanwhile, CSU's Pete Thomas threw 3 interceptions in CSU's victory over Northern Colorado, and his completion rating has fallen each game from a high of 84% in the opener to 57% against Utah State. Against New Mexico State, Faulkner completed 63% of his passes.

Misc.
So far, SJSU has never blown a lead to lose a game in 2011, but did in 2010 three times: against UC Davis (a I-AA team), New Mexico State, and Utah State. Colorado State has won two games on comebacks: the one against New Mexico and another in OT against Utah State. The factor that made the Aggies slide down the Rockies was the fumbled punt return by Moats. So far, SJSU has never fumbled a kick return. The Spartans' victory v. NMSU was a heavier victory than SJSU's one victory in 2010 - a 16-11 win over the I-AA Southern Utah decided by a last-minute TD run by Lamon Muldrow. SJSU's two victories in 2009 were in low-scoring contests: 19-9 over the I-AA Cal Poly and 13-10 over New Mexico State.

Now comparing other statistics between the Spartans and Rams. Meanwhile, Colo. St.'s leading wide receiver, Crockett Gilmore, averages 11.3 yards per catch as opposed to SJSU's Noel Grigsby with 8.5 yards per catch. However, SJSU's Rutley has 388 rushing yards and 5.7 yards per carry while CSU's Raymond Carter has only 245 (5.2/carry). Three Spartans (Rutley, Ryan Otten, and Jabari Carr) have had receptions/runs of 60 or more yards, a feat no Ram has yet. Defensively, as the SJSU preview article points out, in the past 2 games the SJSU defense has allowed 0 4th quarter scoring by opponents in both the past 2 games.

In coach Mike MacIntyre's second year with the team, the Spartans have now won a truly hard-fought victory with little flaws or carelessness. Still, the 3-1 Colorado State Rams appear to have the edge, and it is doubtful that San Jose State can really pull off an upset victory unless they continue improving. Still, at my most optimistic, my pick will be San Jose State by 3.

Other WAC Games...
Utah State at (I-A independent) Brigham Young (Friday at 6PM Mountain/8PM Eastern on ESPN and ESPN3.com): Utah State by 7. BYU has yet to win a game by more than 7 points this season and appears to be on the decline ever since leaving the Mountain West after 2010. BYU's victories over Mississippi (14-13) and Central Florida (24-17) both came following deficits. Meanwhile, Utah State appears to have promise this season. In its opener, the Aggies nearly beat the defending national champions Auburn Tigers...IN AUBURN, ALABAMA TOO!...but lost 42-38 after Auburn's successful on-side kick and subsequent touchdown. In that game, Aggie QB Chuckie Keeton's strong arm contributed to Utah State's surprisingly high score with 21 of 30 completed passes, and Keeton has an overall 66.7% completion rate this season compared to BYU QB Jake Heaps' 55.6%. Additionally, Utah State has scored 15 TD's on running plays, 13 more than BYU has this year.

That's the only Friday WAC game this weekend. All others on Saturday.

Nevada at (#4) (Mountain West Conf.) Boise State: Boise State by 10. As the currently 3-0 Boise State, which moved from the WAC to MWC this year, continues to rack high rankings and victories, Nevada is coming off a 2010 season from being the top WAC team to a possibly mediocre season. Boise State Broncos QB Kellen Moore is going to hunt down the Wolf Pack with his 79% completion rate and will give much advantage to the Broncos' receiving unit that has scored 13 TD's on receptions, while the Wolf Pack has only 3 receiving TD's as of now. In 2010, Nevada came back from behind in the 4th and beat Boise State 34-31 in OT.

Idaho at (Atlantic Coast Conf.) Virginia (will be on ESPN3): Virginia by 14. Besides the obvious competitive differences between the WAC and ACC, with 10 rushing TDs so far in 2011 and QB Michael Rocco having a 62.2% completion rate the Virginia Cavaliers will put their rushing game at an advantage. Furthermore, Idaho's only victory has come against the I-AA North Dakota.

Hawaii at Louisiana Tech (ESPN3): Hawaii by 7. Hawaii has yet to win any road games this season, and while both the Rainbow Warriors and Bulldogs QBs have completion rates in the 60 percent range, given how the Rainbow Warriors have scored 11 TDs on receptions they can put up a great offensive threat against LT.

New Mexico State at (MWC) New Mexico: New Mexico State by 9. With regular starter Andrew Manley out for the season due to injury, NMSU Aggies QB Matt Christian showed much potential in his first game of 2011, the loss to SJSU, with 17 for 28 completed passes. In 4 games, New Mexico Lobos have yet to win a single game...and are so bad they even lost to the I-AA Sam Houston State in OT! Furthermore, Lobos RB James Wright averages only 3.2 yards per carry over 114 yards, while Aggies RB Kenny Turner averages 7.

(Southeastern Conf.) Ole Miss (Mississippi) at Fresno State: Fresno State by 3. I was about to pick Mississippi alone on being an SEC team, but given how the Fresno State Bulldogs have a wide receiver (Jalen Saunders) who averages 30.5 yards per catch, I'd be a bit hesitant.

My WAC football picks for Sept. 24

New Mexico State (1-2) at San Jose State (0-3, 0-1 WAC): SJSU by 7. The two teams meet for the first time since October 30, 2010 when NMSU scored a touchdown with 0 seconds left to beat SJSU 29-27 in Las Cruces, N.M. While NMSU has not appeared in a bowl since 1960 and has yet to have an above-.500 season since joining the WAC in 2005, SJSU has a better track record of: 3 bowl appearances in the 1980s (as a member of the Pacific Coast Athletic Association including winning the 1986 California Bowl), winning the 1990 California Bowl (while in the now-defunct Big West Conference of football), and winning the 2006 New Mexico Bowl (as a WAC school). Since joining the Western Athletic Conference in 1996, SJSU has had three above-.500 seasons: 2000, 2006, and 2008. Additionally, from 2005-2010, SJSU is 5-1 against NMSU (the 1 being that ugly loss in 2010). Oh, if you wanna see highlights of that game, the New Mexico State Aggies YouTube channel has them:



One cause for concern though is NMSU's unlikely victory last week over the Big 10 team Minnesota that included the seizure of Minnesota Golden Gophers coach Jerry Kill (who was taken to hospital). Additionally, NMSU sophomore quarterback Andrew Manley has a 59% completion rate...higher than Matt Faulkner's 53%, and has passed for 892 yards compared to San Jose State's 477 among 3. However, SJSU has the edge in rushing, averaging 4.0 yards per carry in 367 yards and 4 touchdowns in contrast with NMSU's paltry 1.7 yards per carry in 155 with just 1 TD. While SJSU has yet to score a touchdown by reception (they almost did last week until that interception) in 477 receiving yards with an average 10.4 per catch, in 892 yards and 14.4 per catch NMSU has scored 6. NMSU's receivers are going to be the Aggies' driving force, and SJSU's defensive line needs to watch out and restrict yardage and break up as many passes as they can.

Elsewhere in WAC football...
Fresno State (0-2) at Idaho (1-2): Idaho by 4. A tough one, as both teams have extremely close stats in rushing, passing, and receiving (FS, ID). The Fresno State Bulldogs beat the Idaho Vandals 23-20 in 2010 at Fresno. Idaho needs to look out because Fresno's running back Robbie Rouse has been on the loose all season with an average 4.6 yards per carry in 365 and 3 of the 4 rushing touchdowns by the Bulldogs. Ryan Bass, the Vandals' RB, average 4.0 yards each carry in only 117, and his longest run was an 18-yard TD. Idaho, however, has a slight edge in receiving with six TDs in 666 (EVIL) yards vs. Fresno's 4 TDs in 639.

Louisiana Tech (1-2) at Mississippi State (SEC) (1-2): Mississippi State by 9. Don't let Miss State's 1-2 start fool you: the Southeastern Conference Bulldogs are coming off a breakout 2010 season that ended with a blowout victory over the Big 10 Michigan Wolverines in the Gator Bowl. Meanwhile, the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs...dang, this is the Battle of the (southern) Bulldogs right here!...have suffered two close losses to southern-region Conference USA teams: 19-17 at Southern Mississippi and 35-34 vs. Houston. In both games, La. Tech blew leads in 4th quarter. Mississippi State's 694 rushing yards far outweighs La. Tech's 522 and will play a greater role for the Bulldogs' offense than La. Tech QB Nick Isham's greater passing depth of 693 yards vs. Miss. State's Chris Relf at 493.

Nevada (1-1, 1-0 WAC) at Texas Tech (Big 12) (2-0): Texas Tech by 14. Another WAC team goes to the football-loving state? And it's sure telling how the defending WAC champions couldn't even play a BLOWOUT game against the worst WAC team of 2010 (no I'm not still gloating I'm just observing). The Wolf Pack's Tyler Lantrip has NOTHING (57.1% completions in 331 yards) against the Texas Tech Red Raiders' Seth Doege (81.8%, 727). These two teams diverge greatly in advantages of rushing (Nevada 544 yards and 4 TDs, Texas Tech 335 and 5) and receiving (Texas Tech 794 and 10, Nevada 395 and 1). In their last meeting, Texas Tech beat Nevada 35-19 in Reno on September 6, 2008. And that was when Colin Kaepernick (now with the NFL's San Francisco 49ers) was the starting QB!

Colorado State (Mountain West Conference) (2-1) at Utah State (1-1): Utah State by 6. The Utah State Aggies, otherwise not an extremely well-storied football team, showed some promise in its opener when it held 1st-half leads against the defending national champs Auburn Tigers but lost 42-38. Colorado State has had 10 bowl appearances since 1992 (the latest being a win in the 2008 New Mexico Bowl). (Before 1999, Colorado State was in the WAC.) Utah State, since 1998 and through 4 affiliations (Big West, independent, Sun Belt, and now WAC) has never had an above-.500 season since losing the 1997 Humanitarian Bowl. In both rushing and receiving, Utah State (6.7 and 12.2 vs. Colorado State's 4.2 and 8.8), and in rushing, Utah State has produced twice as many TDs as Co. State has.

UC Davis (I-AA) (1-2) at Hawaii (1-2): Hawaii by 10. Bummer. ESPN.com lacks stats for the UC Davis Aggies. Of course I-AA teams are easy wins for I-A WAC teams (unless it's SJSU in 2010 vs. UC Davis...)

Another blown opportunity for the Spartans

San Jose State lost 17-14 to the defending WAC first-place team and defending Fight Hunger Bowl champion Nevada Wolf Pack on yet ANOTHER last-minute end zone interception. Similar thing happened in 2010 in the Spartans' game against Utah State. So far, SJSU is 0-3 including 0-1 in the WAC, and I initially got a bit heated and (sorry if it offended you on facebook) and predicted a winless season. HOWEVER...in terms of scoring deficits, SJSU is improving, having lost in week 1 to Stanford by 54 (57-3) and in week 2 to UCLA by 10 (27-17). In the UCLA game 2 weeks ago SJSU had tied the game 17-17 after 3 quarters then completely shut down afterwards. Yesterday v. Nevada, both teams were tied 7-7 after the first, then Nevada led 17-7 after 3 quarters, and then SJSU's Brandon Rutley made a 4th-and-1 touchdown run fighting off a pile of Nevada defenders to put the score where it ended up being. With just over a minute left in the 4th, SJSU had driven 69 yards all the way to Nevada's 15 yard line. Noel Grigsby caught Matt Faulkner's 1st-and-10 pass in the end zone out of bounds, so it was an incomplete. The dagger in the Spartans' chest came in Faulkner's 3rd-and-9 pass targeted to Chandler Jones that got intercepted by Nevada's Duke Williams. At least SJSU had 2 interceptions, including Peyton Thompson's 1st-quarter one at the end zone to disrupt Nevada's first touchdown attempt. Also, SJSU stopped Nevada on one of its two 4th-and-1 plays.

Some other statistical highlights:
- SJSU again improved in passing yards with a 152-112 edge over Nevada in contrast with last week when the Spartans trailed the UCLA Bruins by 30 yards (115-145). SJSU averaged 4.6 yards per pass v. Nevada, 1.1 better than against UCLA. Accounting for this improvement is the return of senior quarterback Matt Faulkner who recovered from concussions after sitting out the previous game. Redshirt freshman quarterback Dasmen Stewart had some playing time vs. the Wolf Pack during the 1st half.
- However, SJSU slipped in rushing with just 138 yards yesterday vs. 202 against UCLA.
- Still, San Jose State quarterbacks have yet to complete a touchdown pass.
- Two of the three lost fumbles by the Spartans led to Nevada scores. First was in the beginning of 2nd quarter, game tied, and Pompey Festejo intercepted a Nevada pass and returned it for 30 yards only to fumble it in Nevada's 43, and Nevada scored a touchdown + extra point off that recovery. Also in the 3rd quarter, Dasmen Stewart fumbled on a 1st-and-10 (no he didn't rush 70 yards contra what ESPN play by play says), and Nevada scored a field goal off the recovery and led 17-7.

BTW, the whole game is available in its entirety at WatchESPN.com. (SJSU's final drive begins at 2 hrs 57 mins in the video.)

Elsewhere in WAC football...
The ONLY Western Athletic Conference team that won on week 3 was...Fresno State! A 27-22 win over the I-AA North Dakota. Two of my six picks from Friday were correct in terms of win/loss...I was almost right about UTEP/NMSU (UTEP won by 6, I thought NMSU would win by 3), almost right about SJSU (I picked SJSU by 7...almost was really SJSU by 4), and totally wrong about Hawaii/UNLV (I picked Hawaii by 17, but it ended up really UNLV by 20). NMSU's loss to UTEP could provide some relief and confidence for the Spartans, who face the Aggies in San Jose on Saturday afternoon. NMSU was the second-worst WAC team in 2010, and in that season the Aggies beat the Spartans 29-27 on a no-time-left touchdown; SJSU did rally from a 17-3 deficit to lead 27-23 with just under 4 minutes left. If SJSU does indeed redeem itself and beef up its defense and stop throwing interceptions and committing so many penalties it might earn its first victory of 2011 against last year's undesired foe. Otherwise it'll be yet another horrendous season and possibly lead to the firing of second-year head coach Mike McIntyre.

So what next for SJSU?

San Jose State, the #8 team in the Western Athletic Conference, has lost in the WAC Tournament semifinals to #1 Utah State, 58-54. Utah State led for most of the game, but San Jose State fought back despite many turnovers and missed shots. I was listening to the game on KSJS-FM and kept thinking that the Spartans were falling apart as the clock ran down. Worst of all, Adrian Oliver, the leading WAC scorer, missed a potentially game-winning three-pointer with 7 seconds left and SJSU trailing 56-54. That could have been such a shocking upset right there had SJSU kept up its defense and prevented Utah State from scoring next that SportsCenter would replay that three-pointer over and over and put SJSU in the national spotlight. But instead, this season will just be George Nessman's best season in his six seasons with the Spartans (17-15 overall including 5-11 WAC regular season games) and the first season that SJSU basketball had 17 wins since 1979-1980 (when SJSU was in the Big West Conference). Also, this is SJSU's first foray into the WAC semifinals since joining the WAC in 1996 after a Big West championship season and NCAA tournament berth. (In the first round of the 1996 NCAA tournament, SJSU lost to eventual champion Kentucky 110-72 on March 14.)

Meanwhile, I just watched the Florida State/Virginia Tech Atlantic Coast Conference tournament game on ESPN3.com. While Florida State was trailing 52-51, Derwin Kitchen made a jumper at the buzzer, but an official review found that when the buzzer sounded Kitchen still had the ball on his fingertips; thus the basket didn't count. Must've been really disappointing for the FSU fans and players with that temporary moment of excitement.

Adrian Oliver and Derwin Kitchen both missed potentially shocking shots. Worst of all, Oliver got the ball off a Utah State miss, scored a basket to make the score 56-54, was fouled, missed the free throw, and missed a three-point shot that he got after USU's Tai Wesley missed BOTH free throws!!!

Spartan fans should root for either Boise State or New Mexico State, whoever will challenge Utah State in the WAC championship final this Saturday 6PM Pacific time on ESPN2. And for Oliver, he is considering entering the draft this year. On the post-game show on KSJS-FM, SJSU athletic director Tom Bowen speculated that SJSU might have a seed in the College Basketball Invitational or CollegeInsider.com Tournament.

Which brings up the next topic: How have losers of the WAC semifinals fared over the years?

• 2008: Semifinal losers were #1 Utah State and #2 Nevada. Utah State went to the NIT and lost in the first round. Ditto for Nevada albeit in the CBI.
• 2009: #3 Idaho lost the quarterfinals of the WAC tournament then advanced two rounds in the CIT. #5 New Mexico State lost the semis, that was it (wow...71-70 to Utah State!). Louisiana Tech, the sixth-ranked team that beat Idaho in the conference tournament only to lose in the semifinals, didn't make any postseason national tournament either.
• 2010: #4 Louisiana Tech (another victim of Utah State and sadly sank to a non-tournament ninth this season) lost the semifinals to Utah State and survived CIT all the way to round 2. #2 Nevada made the NIT.
  

This year, the WAC tournament has a different format than from years past. It used to be just a 3-day tournament with quarterfinals (1 v 8, 4-5, 3-6, 2-7), semifinals (1 v 8 winner vs 4 v 5 winner, 3-6 winner vs. 2-7 winner), and a final. This year, it stretched to four days because of a first round with a 5 vs. 8 and 4 vs. 7 game. The 5 vs. 8 winner faces #4, the winner of that game faces #1 in semifinal; the 4 vs. 7 winner faces #3, the winner of that faces #2 in semifinal. The losers of this year's WAC semis were SJSU and may be either #2 Boise State or #3 New Mexico State.

So it seems that in years past making a postseason national tournament depended on conference ranking not how far a team goes in the conference tournament. However, Utah State was the regular season WAC champion in 2008 but only made the NIT due to losing the semifinals. In 2009, Idaho lost the quarterfinals and made the CBI, but the team that beat Idaho for another WAC round didn't make it anywhere. Still, from Bowen's statement, I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope for an encore or two from the Spartans and opportunity in the national tournament scene.

OUCH! San Jose State basketball loses by 1 point after..FOUR overtime periods!

I was quite surprised to learn that last night's Boise State at San Jose State basketball game actually made it to overtime given that at one point i checked SJSU was trailing BSU by around 10 or so points during the 2nd half. The final score ended up being Boise 102, San Jose 101 in 4 OT's. The last SJSU game that made it to 4 OT's was the January 10, 1985 home game vs. Cal State Fullerton, where SJSU won 97-92 (box score stats not available; I just heard that on radio and looked it up online, that's my best guess). Listening to the game on KSJS-FM 90.5, the SJSU student-run radio station, was a big thrill as SJSU Spartans continued fighting back against Boise State Broncos' non-stop offense with last-possession three-pointers from guard Calvin Douglas (a bencher, not starter). SJSU got lucky at the end of the third overtime, as a replay review found that Boise State guard La'Shard Anderson committed a shot-clock violation by shooting a three-pointer (that went in) after the shot clock buzzer went off (with the shot clock trailing the game clock by 0.9 seconds). By the end of the third OT, the score was a 98-98 tie. Yes, the fourth OT score was BSU 4, SJSU 3, as although SJSU played for the final possession, in the final seconds BSU stole the ball to seal the game. This is SJSU's first overtime loss since the January 28, 2006 home game vs. New Mexico State, an 81-75 loss.

According to the ESPN.com boxscore, the Broncos outscored the Spartans in: field goals made (Boise 43.1% vs. San Jose 37.6%), three-pointers made (37.5% vs. 31.3%), and especially offensive rebounds (18 vs. 9) and steals (10 vs. 3). In overall rebounds though, SJSU had 50 vs. Boise's 40 and made 77.1% of their free throws compared to Boise making 68.9%. With these statistics, it's no wonder how SJSU's shot-clock stalling in the fourth overtime failed them as they couldn't manage to return offensive results from defensive plays (something that happened throughout the game as they kept allowing Boise to make three-point shots while missing their own shots).

The blog Spartan Hoops has a fuller recap of yesterday's heartbreaking game; as announcer Mike Chisholm said on KSJS, given how long the game was running either team would be very disappointed if losing. Spartan Hoops previews Saturday's SJSU home game vs. the University of Idaho Vandals better than I can do.

As of today, the SJSU Spartans are 8-6 overall and 0-3 in Western Athletic Conference play. A sign of doom? Depends on whether the team can get their act together and make a huge comeback this season. And how do the first three games predict the rest of the season?

• Boise State (9-7, 0-3 WAC start): 15-17 overall with 5-11 in WAC play...one fewer conference win yet one more overall win than SJSU had last year.
  
• Fresno State (10-7, 3-0): 10-7 overall at this time, the Bulldogs ended 15-17 of all regular season games and 7-9 in the WAC.
• Hawaii (8-8, 1-2): 10-20 (3-13), the worst of the WAC 2009-2010.
• Idaho (8-6, 1-2): a similar start to ours, Idaho ended up 15-16 and 6-10.
  
• Louisiana Tech (15-2, 3-0): 23-10 (9-7); 2nd round of the CollegeInsider.com tournament.
  
• Nevada (10-6, 2-1): Finished the season 20-12 (11-5 WAC); made the 2nd round of the National Invitational Tournament.
• New Mexico State (9-7, 2-1): 22-11 (11-5); WAC champions; 1st round of the NCAA tournament
  
• Utah State (11-6, 1-2): That first win began a 14-game winning streak that helped the Aggies make the WAC tournament final and secure a berth in the NCAA tournament.

Appears to be a mixed bag: Fresno State and Nevada had similar records by the third WAC game yet their paths diverged as the season progressed. SJSU's current record nearly mirrors those of Boise State and Idaho by their third WAC games of 2009-2010, and all three teams finished the season with nearly similar records. And although both Lousiana Tech and Fresno State had 3-0 WAC starts, Louisiana Tech had a stronger pre-conference record than Fresno's that helped them make the postseason.

Adrian Oliver, the star senior SJSU guard who transferred from the University of Washington, has said that his goal this year is to take SJSU to the NCAA tournament. By the way, in yesterday's game, Oliver fouled out before overtime began. It's gonna be a long way to go, realistically:

• The last time SJSU made the NCAA tournament was in 1996 (at the time SJSU were Big West Conference champions but got eliminated in the first round by eventual national champions Kentucky, 110-76).
• The last time SJSU finished a season above .500 was 2000-2001.
• The last time SJSU made it to the second round of their conference tournament (having been WAC members since the '96-'97 season) was in 2008 (a much-improved season from last, at 13-19 overall, 4-12 WAC, compared to the 2006-2007 lowly 5-25 and 4-12 WAC).

Last season, even at home Boise State and Idaho were tough: SJSU beat both teams albeit both times 3 or fewer points: vs. Idaho 78-75 on January 4, 2010 and vs. Boise State 76-74 on January 14, 2010. To even make the CollegeInvitational.com (or CBI), SJSU would at least need to be 9-4 in the rest of WAC play (which would lead to an 18-10 season finish, including a non-conference game vs. Montana State on February 15) and make at least the second round of WAC tournament (which would lead to...20 wins!). I predict that SJSU could win over Idaho if the Spartans play hard enough.

The rest of the month's schedule: SJSU visits Louisiana Tech on the 13th...and gosh, Louisiana Tech is off to a bad start right now (9-8 and 0-3, including a home loss yesterday to Fresno State). Saturday the 15th, SJSU visits defending champion New Mexico State; last January 23, SJSU made a comeback victory over NMSU at home, 93-84. Man! What happened to those Aggies? As of today NMSU is 7-9 overall and 1-1 in WAC (including a road loss in Boise State 81-78 on New Year's Eve). The Spartans get 8 days off before visiting Hawaii, which finished disgracefully bad last year and doesn't look so good right now (9-5 and 0-2). SJSU faces WAC runner-up Utah State once again in San Jose on the 27th...having lost to the Aggies in Utah 80-71 on New Year's Eve. The following Saturday, state rival Fresno State comes to San Jose.

Sure, Spartan seniors Adrian Oliver and Justin Graham are great scorers, as are Will Carter, freshman Keith Shamburger, and even rising benchers Calvin Douglas and Chris Jones. But given their shaky WAC start it's time for SJSU to start strategizing on defense: better guarding, maybe some steals now and then, and offensive rebounds too, to get second chances on missed shots. Otherwise, Oliver's dream won't come true, and it'll be yet another disappointing mediocre season for sixth-year coach George Nessman.

An interesting conversation with KOFY TV about broadcasting "widescreen standard definition" football

Tomorrow, KOFY-TV 20 in the San Francisco Bay Area will broadcast the San Jose State vs. Boise State football game. Currently, SJSU is 1-4 on the season and 0-1 in the Western Athletic Conference, while Boise State is undefeated 5-0 and 1-0 and is predicted to top Bowl Championship Series ratings. Although this is a home game, I'd like to stay home and just watch both the San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies opening game of the National League Championship Series in baseball on KTVU-TV and the SJSU game on KOFY. Given that the Boise State Broncos is the 4th ranked team that the lowly SJSU Spartans has played this season, and that SJSU fell to the national champions 48-3 and even lost to a Football Championship Subdivision (lower division than where SJSU is, the Football Bowl Subdivision) team UC Davis Aggies during the SJSU Homecoming game, 14-13 on 2 Oct., tomorrow night's score should be quite obvious.

I happened to catch the Boise State vs. Toledo football game last Saturday on KOFY, which is one of the Western Athletic Conference TV affiliates. While Boise State is undeniably a great football team, the broadcast format isn't. KOFY broadcast the match in 4:3 format as it does for all its programmes other than ABC7 News at 9. However, KOFY compressed a 16:9 picture into 4:3, thus making everything seem thinner than proportional. Thus, today I decided to ring up the KOFY switchboard over the phone, (415) 821-2020 pressing 4 for technical services, to ask the tech guy why. I left a message and promptly got a call back about 15 minutes later. The technical worker explained that Learfield distributed the football game in a widescreen standard definition picture format, and standard definition programmes must be broadcast in 4:3 format. In this case, as widescreen is the new normal format for television sets and broadcasting, the only realistic broadcasting choices that'd preserve the picture quality would either be: scrunching the picture (as I mentioned earlier) and leaving black pillars to the left and right of the screen, or letterboxing the picture within the 4:3 area and leaving the image proportional. The tech worker explained that "blowing up" the widescreen SD image just because KOFY does have widescreen capability would drastically reduce picture quality and defeat the purpose of high definition television.

So there you have it, if you're wondering why KOFY or any other WAC television affiliate is showing the football games in such a weird format. I'd suggest contacting Learfield Sports, which distributes TV/radio broadcasts of the WAC, and persuading them to start televising games in HD. I mean c'mon. If CBS could start broadcasting soap opera The Young and the Restless back in summer 2001, then why does Learfield have to broadcast football games in standard definition widescreen in 2010?

If anything: GO SPARTANS! GO GIANTS!

PS: At the SJSU student newspaper The Spartan Daily, one columnist opines that the Giants need a better offense to beat Philadelphia.